Friday 13 June 2014

What impact would Scottish independence have on the rest of the UK?


On September 18th the Scots will head to the polling booths to address the question "Should Scotland be an independent country?" – Will they vote to remain part of the UK or opt for independence? Opinion polls suggest that around a third of Scots want to bring to an end the 305 years of political union with England, whilst around 50% would prefer to remain part of the UK. A lot has been made of the impact Scottish independence could have on Scotland but what effect would it have on the rest of the UK?

1. Would Scotland adopt the Euro?
If Scotland does vote for independence, they will be required to reapply for EU membership and according to EU criteria, new countries joining the EU are formally required to adopt the Euro. However Alex Salmond, leader of the SNP (Scottish National Party)  hopes to get around this requirement, instead envisaging the creation of a “sterling zone” in which Scotland would continue to share the pound with the UK. Stuart McDonald of the "Yes Scotland" campaign argues that since Scotland and the rest of the UK are each other's biggest export markets "it's in our mutual interests that we all carry on using the pound". However Alistair Darling, leader of the “Better Together” campaign, is doubtful about this possibility, claiming that a currency union may not make sense if the countries are splitting politically.

2. Would a passport be required to cross into Scotland?
A passport is not currently required to cross a border between countries within the Common Travel Area ie. Great Britain, Ireland, the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands except sometimes for air travel. Imposing any restrictions would be a huge undertaking and would contradict the current arrangement between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland by which people can drive freely from one to the other without the need for a passport. The SNP have shown that they are in favour of remaining in the Common Travel Area and consequently in the passport-free zone.

3. How would this affect the national debt of the UK?
Alex Salmond has controversially suggested that Scotland might walk away from the national debt altogether if the UK disagrees to his plan for a “sterling zone” however most commentators agree that a share in the debt is inevitable. If they were to inherit a debt proportional to their population, this would total around £122 billion of the UK’s predicted £1.5 trillion of debt for 2016-2017 with the Scots currently making up 8.4% of the UK population.

4. Would the UK lose oil revenue?
“It’s Scotland’s oil” was the SNP’s famous slogan in the 1970s and it remains a major part of their policy today. The Scottish government believes Scotland is geographically entitled to 90% of the North Sea’s oil and gas fields. The UK Treasury has benefitted from some £300 billion in tax revenues over the last 40 years so relinquishing this to Scotland would undoubtedly leave the UK out of pocket. It has therefore been suggested that Scotland might sell the oil fields back to the UK in exchange for a smaller share of the national debt. Whether they would be willing to do this is another matter.

5. Would Scottish idendepence prompt Wales to leave the UK too?
Given that just 10% of the Welsh have expressed a preference for independence, this does not seem likely. Having said that, Leanne Wood, head of the Welsh equivalent of the SNP, Plaid Cymru, does not think it completely unfeasible. "If Scotland becomes independent and is seen as a success, it would change the nature of the debate and independence could become a serious mainstream option."

For more info, read the full article at: www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25035427

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