On September 18th the Scots will head to the polling booths to address the question "Should Scotland be an independent country?" – Will they vote to remain part of the UK or opt for independence? Opinion polls suggest that around a third of Scots want to bring to an end the 305 years of political union with England, whilst around 50% would prefer to remain part of the UK. A
lot has been made of the impact Scottish independence could have on Scotland but what
effect would it have on the rest of the UK?
1. Would Scotland adopt the Euro?
If Scotland does vote for
independence, they will be required to reapply for EU membership and according
to EU criteria, new countries joining the EU are formally required to adopt the
Euro. However Alex Salmond, leader of the SNP (Scottish National Party) hopes to get around this requirement, instead
envisaging the creation of a “sterling zone” in which Scotland would continue
to share the pound with the UK. Stuart McDonald of the "Yes Scotland" campaign
argues that since Scotland and the rest of the UK are each other's biggest
export markets "it's in our mutual interests that we all carry on using
the pound". However Alistair Darling,
leader of the “Better Together” campaign, is doubtful about this possibility,
claiming that a currency union may not make sense if the countries are splitting
politically.
2. Would a passport be required to cross into Scotland?
A passport is not currently
required to cross a border between countries within the Common Travel Area ie.
Great Britain, Ireland, the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands except sometimes
for air travel. Imposing any restrictions would be a huge undertaking and would
contradict the current arrangement between Northern Ireland and the Republic of
Ireland by which people can drive freely from one to the other without the need
for a passport. The SNP have shown that they are in favour of remaining in the
Common Travel Area and consequently in the passport-free zone.
3. How would this affect the national debt of the UK?
Alex Salmond has
controversially suggested that Scotland might walk away from the national debt
altogether if the UK disagrees to his plan for a “sterling zone” however most
commentators agree that a share in the debt is inevitable. If they were to
inherit a debt proportional to their population, this would total around £122
billion of the UK’s predicted £1.5 trillion of debt for 2016-2017 with the Scots
currently making up 8.4% of the UK population.
4. Would the UK lose oil revenue?
“It’s Scotland’s oil” was the
SNP’s famous slogan in the 1970s and it remains a major part of their policy
today. The Scottish government believes Scotland is geographically entitled to
90% of the North Sea’s oil and gas fields. The UK Treasury has benefitted from
some £300 billion in tax revenues over the last 40 years so relinquishing this
to Scotland would undoubtedly leave the UK out of pocket. It has therefore been
suggested that Scotland might sell the oil fields back to the UK in exchange
for a smaller share of the national debt. Whether they would be willing to do
this is another matter.
5. Would Scottish idendepence prompt Wales to leave the
UK too?
Given that just 10% of the
Welsh have expressed a preference for independence, this does not seem likely. Having said that, Leanne Wood, head of the Welsh equivalent of
the SNP, Plaid Cymru, does not think it completely unfeasible. "If
Scotland becomes independent and is seen as a success, it would change the
nature of the debate and independence could become a serious mainstream
option."
For more info, read the full article at: www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25035427
